SPY $105 saved...again!

What can I say about the $105 level?

I have to stay neutral to bullish on the markets until $105 is broken. There is a case, however, of a H&S pattern on the SPY 60-min. More importantly, we have a new daily trendline, if broken SPY $95 will be inevitable.

In a past post, I mentioned a Chinese stock that I wanted to share with you all (CHNG). On that day it traded to as low as $5.10 (almost nailing a trendline) and formed a reversal candle that had to be confirmed with the next trading day. The confirmation never came. Today that trendline was hit and it bounced beautifully, I bought on an intraday pullback. It looks like a legitimate reversal is on the way.

Past Post:
http://yourfinancialblogger.blogspot.com/2010/08/going-into-tomorrow-neutral.html

My swing position: CHNG @ $4.85

Scalping Gold

Nice pop on gold. I am shorting it intraday. I like the topping tails on the 10-min. chart. GLD is currently @ $122.03

Gold

Gold should be making its move very soon. As soon as tomorrow. The GLD looks like its consolidating and should pop. I don't recommend going long Gold near term. I'm looking for a pop then I would pick up some DZZ.

Light Volume is expected for the week

We have the Labor Day weekend coming next Monday, some traders may decide to go on a vacation. We also have August's job report this Friday. The markets should be trading on light-volume until that job report.

There could be a spike/dump late on Thursday's trading session as traders will not want to hold into the job report. And another spike in volume on Friday morning when the report is released and then light volume should resume thereafter.

GLD intraday bear flag

GLD has a bear flag being traded. A close above its 60-min. 20MA would negate the pattern.

Downside targets: $120.40, but I favor $118.80

A very large correction in the price of Gold

As long as the GLD doesn't trade above $124, we could see a huge correction in the price of gold.

If there is a correction some price targets I have for the GLD are:

$110-$112 and $101-$104.

Watch the Dollar and Oil

The markets, near-term, are bouncing. I think we're going to $110-$112 on the SPY. I would look to short if the SPY reaches its daily 200-MA.

I would like to see the UUP fall into its daily 20-MA, because I am eying GLD and would like to short it @ $124. If GLD can close above $121.40 it will go to $122 then $124.

USO was saved this week. $32.10 is the level to watch each week. We have not had a close below $32.10 on a weekly basis. Oil continues to look very bearish to me.

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Very nice rally

$105 was saved again so a rally isn't surprising. I'm still sitting on my hands waiting for the markets to retrace before I short it. I have my eyes on the $109 level.

My internet has been down lately so don't look for another post until Sunday. I'm at a Starbucks with my laptop and away from my trading desk so no charts.

Good Luck ALL and Have a wonderful weekend.

The final hour

XLF is trading below $13.50...we have not had a close below this level. can it be saved?

Also watch SPY $105

Markets looking BULLISH!

Nice pullback in the markets after an initial pop yesterday afternoon into this morning. Bull flags.

(I hold no positions)

SPY:


JPM:

Staying NEUTRAL to BULLISH

The bulls managed to save $105 SPY but the bears kept them below $106.20. To me the bulls had a better day. I would like to see a move to $109 on the SPY before I start gobbling up some short positions.

Take a look @ the XLF, we have not been able to close below the $13.50 level. Time after time we either bounce off of it or we trade below it and then save it at the end of the day like we did today.

I'm not W.D. Gann or Arch Crawford, but I ran some numbers and some dates you should be watching for are between this Friday and next Friday. More specifically, 08/27/2010 and especially 08/30/2010. Something might not even happen during those days but those are the dates that keep showing up.

**DO NOT BASE YOUR TRADES JUST BECAUSE OF THESE DATES. CYCLE DATES ARE ONE OF THE WORST TECHNICAL INDICATORS YOU CAN TRADE WITH, THEY SHOULD BE SUPPLEMENTED WITH OTHER TECHNICAL INDICATORS.

XLF:


SPY:

Markets are looking very impressive today.

Markets are saving the $105 level on the SPY. It'll be interesting to see if the markets decide to dump the last 30 minutes of the day like it did yesterday.

Next Scalp: USO @ $32.45

Here it comes

Scalping off of gap fill. The pierce.

Scalping the SPY

@ $105.60, $106.20, and the 10-min. 50-MA.

SPY is currently trading @ $105.20

Sold USO and got stopped out with GS

I sold USO for a $.03 loss when I saw the dollar gap higher this morning reversing the Bear Flag pattern.

I got stopped out with GS @ the open, $143.82. I was hoping for a gap up, but it never came.

Very small losses. I'm shorting retracements from now on!

VERY ugly close!!!

The markets are scaring the living hell out of people. Including myself. Petrifying...

If you look at the last 30 min of the day, the markets dumped pretty hard on heavy volume. This leaves me to conclude that not many are willing to hold overnight. Could dumping the last 30 min of the day be the start of a new trend?

I've been harping about the SPY $106 level. It would have given me more reason to believe in a rally tomorrow if we had only closed at or above $106. We closed @ $105.53.

Did you see how Gold closed the last 10 minutes of the day? Despite a stable dollar, Gold had a nice pop the last 10 minutes. Gold is a fear play. When people fear the market, they park their money in Gold as a safe-haven bet. Gold 60-min. chart looks VERY BULLISH.

The USO couldn't hold its intraday double bottom support. It sold the last 10 minutes of the day on volume at least 4x greater than the average amount traded throughout the day. DEFLATION near-term is the problem (years). A rising dollar=falling stock market.

This new market is NOT for the faint of heart. It will attempt to whipsaw many people out of positions; bulls and bears alike. DO NOT CHASE PRICES let it come to YOU!

I am still holding onto GS and USO, my stops are IN!
I'm currently down 0.2% and 0.5% respectively.

There should be a bounce coming, as long as tomorrow doesn't close below $105. I'm banking the dollar will fall tomorrow. That should lift the markets and commodities.
If the selling continues, I will practice what I preach: "DON'T GO LONG THIS MARKET, SHORT ON RETRACES!"

Resistance and Support for SPY:


GLD bull flag:

Last 30 min. of the day..Positioning myself for tomorrow

In an earlier post I said I wouldn't hold any long positions overnight. But the technicals are telling me something else. GO LONG!

-USO is holding intraday double bottom
-UUP has an intraday bear flag
-GS is holding intraday double bottom
-Bearish news is everywhere (Existing home sales hit 15-year lows, Rosenberg calling the economy a depression)

I hold USO @ $31.93 and GS @ $144.35

I will post charts up tonight. Good Luck ALL!

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Going long USO @ $31.93

The UUP found resistance @ the daily 50-SMA and formed a bear flag intraday.
Bear Flag:


I'm long USO @ $31.93 after it pulled back into double bottom support. Dollar down=Oil up.

SPY Target: $106 reached

SPY dropped to as much as $105 today. I'm looking to go long off of this intraday pullback. (I will NOT be holding long positions overnight even though a bounce looks likely)

-VIX is coming into resistance
-GS is bouncing off of its daily 50-SMA
-MS is at Gap Fill
-SPY has a bottoming tail

All of these reasons lead me to believe that the bottom of the day is in.

IBM H&S breakdown signals further downside for SPY

IBM today closed below $127. Why is that important? $127 is a neckline of H&S pattern, and it does look like we will be headed to $122 on IBM. This could signal a sell-off in the markets on Tuesday. $106 is the target to the downside.

I don't recommend going long until this bear market is over. Cover short positions @ support and short on bounces.

IBM, neckline is the purple trendline:

Going into tomorrow NEUTRAL

The charts aren't clear-cut this week. But there is a bearish pattern on the 60-min chart of the SPY.

I don't recommend going long, because I do think $106 SPY is in the near future. Instead you should scalp/short $107.85

Here is the Chinese Stock I've been watching. I said I'd alert you guys once it got to a certain level. Well, it came within $.05 of it. Check out the candle on the daily chart, is a reversal coming? Monday's close needs to confirm.

(I am currently not an owner of this stock)

CHNG

2010 NFL Season!

Taking a step back from stocks with this post.

I just got done drafting in my fantasy league.

Starters are: Phillip Rivers, Andre Johnson, Hines Ward, Ryan Grant, Beanie Wells, Kellen Winslow, Matt Forte.

I think this will be the year for the Baltimore Ravens or NY Jets. Leaning more towards the Jets though.

I will have a weekend post for stocks tomorrow. Good Luck ALL!

Markets are breaking out

Markets are having a nice retrace bounce today. Exactly 50% retrace from the July 1 low to August 9 high. I have no long positions open, and I will be looking for bearish setups if SPY goes to $111.80-$112.50 to begin shorting. With a tight stop loss in place as well.

Here is a chart of SUTR. It's forming a double-bottom, it might hold and it might not. The way I like to trade this set up is for it to break above $2.25 and CLOSE above it, I'd look for another rally and then a retrace off of a bull flag and then pick it up. I think this double-bottom will hold, but I'm not trading it here.

SUTR:

I'm starting to reblog.

Big moves are coming. This new market will not be for the faint of heart. Expect extreme volatility. I caution both Bears and Bulls.

With that said, I do favor the downside, and I do expect 8600-8800 on the DOW.

The markets are trading in a tight range ($107.60-$108.90 on the SPY) watch for a break out or a break down.

If it breaks out, let the market retrace and then short it. (shorting is the safest play in my opinion).

If it breaks down, watch $106 on the SPY for a possible bounce.

SPY Daily Chart:


Crude Oil looks to be cheaper in the future, but it should have a bounce here. $36.00 on the USO looks like a good scalp. But if the USO manages to get to $38.00 I will be buying SCO (double-short oil etf)

USO Daily Chart:


I also have a JUICY CHINESE STOCK for you guys but the level I want hasn't been hit yet. I will notify you all assuming the stock does get there.

***Keep your options open. Let the market come to you. Be patient! Good Luck All.

yourfinancialblogger@gmail.com

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