Chart of focus: MDC

$27.50 - $28 is a good buy or upon breakout of the falling wedge.

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I rechecked the daily charts:

BAC is trading in a bull flag - a break of the daily 50SMA will take us to $16.70 first and if it gets through that...$17.30

GS daily chart has a falling wedge - a break of its daily 20SMA will take us to its daily 50SMA and after that....$180

JPM daily chart also has a falling wedge - a break of its daily 20SMA will take us to $43.50 and then $44.40

XLF weekly, however, is still a bearish pattern, but each time the bears try to take it down, $14.20 holds! Watch the sloping trendline I have pointed out in the last post, if it breaks (i'll be stopping out), we're going to daily 50SMA then $15.10 - $15.30 is heavy resistance.

Monday, I'm thinking a push up in the XLF and then some kind of consolidation as the XLF tries to break the sloping trendline.

Weekly Review

I have a lot that I want to jump into with the markets but before that allow me to introduce myself.

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"My name is Justin, I am a low-risk trader who looks to put ALL of the odds in my favor. I've created this blog to give back to the trading community and help those who have lost it all take back what is rightfully theirs.

I have expressed my concerns about the U.S. economy to my friends and family trying to shelter them from the massive losses they would undergo during the "Housing Bubble." My warnings went unheard as I witnessed their lives change in the blink of an eye.

Good, honest, hardworking people; modest beings trying to support their families are STRUGGLING! They've lost their jobs and homes! Unemployment is at a 26 year high! Corruption is rampant!

This blog, I hope, will help undo the past. I want to help people get back on their feet and not allow 1 year of their life take away the many years they worked diligently at.

I will do my ABSOLUTE BEST to give you back your lives and all I ask for in return is for you to have confidence in my abilities to make a profitable trade which is why I want you to always confirm with my old posts to see if they're accurate. I am still a young college student, but you shouldn't allow my age speak of the wisdom that is instilled within me. Let the charts and profits speak for themselves.

WE WILL MAKE THAT MONEY!"
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This week's close on the XLF is neutral to bearish. I did pick up some FAZ at the 50SMA (60-min) I'll add more as XLF gets closer to the sloping trendline I have pointed out on the chart below; I do think we're headed there. As a bear you want to see $14.20 taken out on a closing basis both on the daily and weekly charts.

JPM is trading in a triangle, a break out to the upside will take us to the 50SMA (60-min) or $41.40. A break down will take us to $40.20

BAC was strong on the day. Look to short it at the daily 50SMA but use a 1.5% stop because it is trading in a BULLISH formation.

MS has support at $29.45 so look for a bounce there

GS has resistance at the daily 20SMA, support is very strong at $158.

WFC is bearish, short it if it gets to $25.90 support is at $24.90
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*use stops where you think is appropriate, I use mental stops so I have no stop recommendations.

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I have a small position in FAZ and a good position in the UCO (double long oil etf)

12/11/2009

If you managed to scalp the XLF off of the new 10-min purple trendline, congrats to you! very nice scalp. Now I suggest for you to watch out as JPM is coming into good support (new 10-min trendline). GS and WFC are forming bull flags.

I will be busy for the rest of the day. I'll be blogging all day by the end of next week. Good luck to you all and I'll see you tonight!

12/10/2009

The bears want to retest the $14.20 - $14.23 so i expect a bounce there. Wait to see what pattern develops at those levels before taking a position. I would think a small bounce then a sell off to break $14.20. I'll update again tonight. Check back often, good luck!

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Again, the technicals played out perfectly. This entire week highs and lows have been nailed! In the afternoon I said a bounce was possible at $14.20 - $14.23 on the XLF, the low of the day? $14.22!

WFC got hammered today and would go into the next week very bearish if it cannot close above $25.90. JPM moving pretty as it continues to bounce off of the $40.66 level and then pushed down again by its 200SMA (10 min.) Financials overall, very weak...

Tomorrow...I'm expecting another up move as the 60-min. XLF shows a bullish pattern in development. I added a new trendline on the XLF 10-min (in purple, connecting both of yesterday's lows) watch that to get tagged for a possible scalp. I'm not short yet, but I'll be looking to add some possibly tomorrow. View the possible scenarios I have drawn below.

XLF resistance: 10 min purple trendline, 50SMA (60 min), and $14.50 - $14.55

BAC came into solid support so I am expecting a bounce from it going into tomorrow. (Support comes from connecting the lows of 5/28/2009, 7/10/2009, 11/02/2009) Resistance levels on BAC are the 20SMA (60-min) and $15.55 - $15.60 are solid. I have a possible scenario mapped out below.

JPM resistance: $41.40 and the 50SMA (60-min)

Pic 1: XLF scenarios
Pic 2: XLF new 10-min trendline
Pic 3: JPM 60-min
Pic 4: BAC daily trenline
Pic 5: BAC scenario

12/09/2009

Financials are strong today. The $14.20 level on the XLF is holding nicely. I'm expecting an up move later in the day. I exited FAZ at the highs and will be back later tonight to update the blog. Good luck and check back often.

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Financials did exactly as i expected: Blast off in the afternoon, Hold the $14.20 on the XLF and pullback after touching the bottom of its triangle, and JPM going to touch it's 200-SMA (10 min)

Tomorrow...I'm expecting the same thing, XLF getting off to a slow start and touch the bottom of the triangle again, I would look to short there about $14.40-$14.45. It'd be better if we can get to the thicker blue line however.

12/08/2009

XLF came close to touching the $14.20 level that I talked about yesterday. XLF was relatively stronger than the overall markets due to the intraday strength of JPM. Somewhat of an ambiguous close. JPM is trading in a bearish pattern with a nearer term bullish pattern. On the 10-minute, JPM must break the blue trendline for another leg down. Resistance on JPM are at the 200-MA, $41.40 and $41.80 levels. XLF will follow JPM.

I'm thinking we're going higher tomorrow. If we do, I see JPM going to the 200MA and XLF touching the bottom of the triangle before another fall.

XLF 60-min and JPM 10-min.

12/08/2009

XLF closed at $14.39. If XLF closes lower on the day. We are going to $14.20 and from there we have a 1-way trip to $13.80! Resistance is at $14.60.